http://nationalinterest.org/article/say-goodbye-taiwan-9931
本文認為從權力政治的角度，持續增長實力的中國，勢將成為亞洲的霸主，台灣終將成為中國的一部分。
台灣可以從三方面抵抗：
一，發展核武
二，發展傳統武力抵抗。
三，仿照香港模式，努力追求最大利益。
但是，核武現階段，美中不可能讓台灣有機會。作者認為，很可惜，當初美國停止了台灣的核武計畫，否則，台灣現在就有獨立的本錢。不過，美國現在不會同意台灣搞核武，因為，擔心牽連到美國。小國可以玩梭哈的遊戲，美國自己也不安。而且，台灣一旦落入中共手中，美國也是自找麻煩。
第二策略，傳統武器將會耗盡國力，台灣不會願意打這種消耗戰。
所以，最後只有第三條路，趕快談好條件，像香港一樣。
他認為會有今日，都是那些原本希望大陸發展的人，誤以為中國會因經濟進步，而成為一個友好和平的民主國家。他認為過去台灣支持中國的發展，這些人是自找死路。
唯一可能突破這種困境的，就是中國大陸本身政治問題纏身，內政分擾，無暇顧及台灣。
＠不過，此說，有人認為一個紛擾的中國，更需要出兵台灣作為民族一統的象徵，因此，紛擾的中國未必是尋求獨立自主台灣的希望，反而是危機。
作者認為，強大的中國，不僅是台灣的問題，根本就是夢魘。而最後，美國只好跟台灣說再見了。
l The main reason for relying on theory is that we have no facts about
the future, because it has not happened yet.
n “The present only has a being in nature; things past have a being in
the memory only; but things to come have no being at all”, said Thomas Hobbes.
u Thus, we have no choice but to rely on theories to determine what is
likely to transpire in world politics.
l John J. Mearsheimer’s realist theory of International relations
n The structure of the international system forces countries concerned
about their security to compete with each other for power
n The ultimate goal of every major state is to maximize its share of
world power and eventually dominate the system.
n In practical terms, this means that the most powerful states seek to
establish hegemony in their regions of the world, while making sure that no
rival great power dominate another region.
u Three defining characteristics
l 1. The main actors are states that operate in anarchy, which simply
means that there is no higher authority above them.
l 2. All great powers have some offensive military capability, which
means they have the wherewithal to hurt each other.
l 3. No state can know the intensions of other states with certainty,
especially their future intentions.
l Why might the US eventually forsake Taiwan?
n 1. Taiwan is so close to the
Chinese mainland and so far away from the US.
n 2. Taiwan is an especially dangerous flashpoint, which could easily
precipitate a Sino-American war that is not in America’s interest.
l Taiwan’s strategies toward China’s Unification
n 1. Taiwan can develop its own nuclear deterrent.
n 2. Conventional deterrence
n 3. “Hong Kong strategy”
u works hard to make sure that the transition is peaceful and that it
gains as much autonomy as possible from Beijing
l There is one set of circumstances under which Taiwan can avoid this
scenario
n Beijing has serious political problems
u Unfortunately for Taiwan, it has no way of influencing events so
that this outcome actually becomes reality.
l In sum, a powerful China isn’t just a problem for Taiwan. It is a
nightmare.
沒有留言:
張貼留言